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409
FXUS64 KTSA 072328
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
528 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Below normal temperatures through Monday, with extensive cloud
cover ending during the day Monday.
- Above average temperatures expected Tuesday to Thursday before another
cold front brings very cold air for the weekend.
- Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Cool northerly flow is present across the area behind a cold front
that passed through this morning. Winds are gusting to 20-30 mph.
Between the cold advection and widespread cloud cover, temperatures
will mostly be flat through the afternoon, then quickly drop this
evening and overnight. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out for
southeast OK today but measurable rain is not expected.
With low clouds holding on for many areas tonight, lows will not be
as chilly as they otherwise might be. Most locations will fall into
the mid to upper 20s. The most likely location for clouds to clear
will be the western portions of Osage/Pawnee counties where lows may
be a bit lower.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
The upper level trough will quickly move east Monday with the
surface high passing through the region. This will mean winds
will be much lighter. Skies are expected to clear during the day
Monday with highs reaching the mid 40s. Upper level ridging nudges
into the area Tuesday with warm southwesterly flow boosting max
temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s. A weak dry cold front
will knock temperatures down a couple of degrees Wednesday, but
otherwise the same pattern continues through Thursday. It's worth
mentioning that the NAM (and other models that do well with low
level cold air) do show the potential for some areas of low clouds
during this period, so there is at least some possibility that we
do not warm up as much as is currently expected.
A potent upper level trough will descend from Canada into the
eastern US this Friday to Saturday. Although any dynamical forcing
will be well removed, the deep cold air will move south into the
forecast area at the surface. Most guidance is in good agreement on
this outcome, with the main uncertainties related to the depth and
timing of the cold air. With that said, this will likely be close
to if not the coldest airmass of the season so far. High
temperatures in the north may struggle to get much above freezing.
However, given the trajectory of the upper level trough,
precipitation is not expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
MVFR ceilings are expected to continue tonight across the
majority of the CWA, with potential for IFR ceilings over far
northwest Arkansas late tonight. During the day Monday, the low
clouds are forecast to finally begin scattering out mid morning
through the afternoon hours. Wind through the period start out
northerly and become southerly during the day Monday once surface
high pressure moves off to the east.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 26 46 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 30 48 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 27 50 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 25 45 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 28 45 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 29 43 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 28 46 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 26 44 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
F10 25 48 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 30 50 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251207T2328.txt
247
FXUS64 KTSA 071740
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1140 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- Below normal temperatures through Monday, with extensive cloud
cover ending during the day Monday.
- Above average temperatures expected Tuesday to Thursday before another
cold front brings very cold air for the weekend.
- Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Cool northerly flow is present across the area behind a cold front
that passed through this morning. Winds are gusting to 20-30 mph.
Between the cold advection and widespread cloud cover, temperatures
will mostly be flat through the afternoon, then quickly drop this
evening and overnight. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out for
southeast OK today but measurable rain is not expected.
With low clouds holding on for many areas tonight, lows will not be
as chilly as they otherwise might be. Most locations will fall into
the mid to upper 20s. The most likely location for clouds to clear
will be the western portions of Osage/Pawnee counties where lows may
be a bit lower.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
The upper level trough will quickly move east Monday with the
surface high passing through the region. This will mean winds
will be much lighter. Skies are expected to clear during the day
Monday with highs reaching the mid 40s. Upper level ridging nudges
into the area Tuesday with warm southwesterly flow boosting max
temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s. A weak dry cold front
will knock temperatures down a couple of degrees Wednesday, but
otherwise the same pattern continues through Thursday. It's worth
mentioning that the NAM (and other models that do well with low
level cold air) do show the potential for some areas of low clouds
during this period, so there is at least some possibility that we
do not warm up as much as is currently expected.
A potent upper level trough will descend from Canada into the
eastern US this Friday to Saturday. Although any dynamical forcing
will be well removed, the deep cold air will move south into the
forecast area at the surface. Most guidance is in good agreement on
this outcome, with the main uncertainties related to the depth and
timing of the cold air. With that said, this will likely be close
to if not the coldest airmass of the season so far. High
temperatures in the north may struggle to get much above freezing.
However, given the trajectory of the upper level trough,
precipitation is not expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
MVFR cigs are expected to continue through the day and into the
night tonight across all sites. The clearing line looks to approach
E OK sites tonight, but is forecast to stall just west of all
terminals. KMLC and KFSM will likely also be on the fringes of MVFR
cigs all night, but will maintain all MVFR conditions through the
night for now for those sites. Some light drizzle or mist can't be
ruled out through the rest of today across NW AR and SE OK, but
confidence is too low to mention currently. Cigs could lower to IFR
conditions across NW AR sites tonight. Breezy northerly winds will
also continue this afternoon, before becoming light overnight
tonight. Clouds should finally break and clear out during the day
Monday from west to east.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 26 46 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 30 48 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 27 50 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 25 45 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 28 45 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 29 43 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 28 46 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 26 44 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
F10 25 48 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 30 50 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251207T1740.txt
536
FXUS64 KTSA 071442
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
842 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 842 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- A combination of colder air and low clouds moving into the
region behind the front will yield below average cool weather
for Sunday.
- Above average warm weather is expected Tuesday to Thursday
before another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end
of the week.
- Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
The surface cold front has made it through the forecast area this
morning with another cold, cloudy day in store. Breezy northerly
winds have picked up behind the front. Near steady to slightly
falling temperatures are expected through the rest of today, with
wind chill values generally in the lower 30s for most locations
through this afternoon. The going forecast is handling current
trends pretty well. Made some minor adjustments to hourly
temperatures. We also cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory earlier
this morning as visibility conditions have improved over the area
this morning.
Bowlan
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Current surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over
eastern KS, with a trailing cold front over central KS moving
toward the region. Ahead of the front, a cool and relatively
moist low level air mass remains in place, but this time with a
large area of low cloud over NE OK and NW AR. While skies have
cleared over SE OK and some fog is showing up over SW AR, low
clouds are either redeveloping or will be surging north into the
region later on tonight. All of this is to say that confidence in
a widespread dense fog event like what occurred last night does
not appear to be in the offing for tonight. Will let the midnight
shift reevaluate and issue an advisory if needed.
The cold front will enter NE OK after 3 AM and will sweep
southeast across the forecast area by midday. Gusty northwest
winds are expected behind the front, though not to advisory level.
A bank of low cloud dropping south out of Nebraska will surge into
the region toward daybreak and will overspread much of the
forecast area through the day. There is some potential that areas
west of highway 75 could see some rays of sun toward the end of
the day. The cold advection behind the front and low cloud will
hold highs below average for Sunday.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Low clouds will likely persist over portions of eastern OK into
western AR into Monday morning. However, as we head into next week
the upper trough over the Plains will be shifting east, and the
resulting downslope flow will lead to clearing skies, more
sunshine and much warmer temps. Highs Tuesday through Thursday
will be above average for this time of year, climbing into the 50s
and 60s. Another cold front is expected by Thursday night, and
this will be a glancing blow of arctic air that is expected to
plunge south with a piece of the polar vortex into the Great Lakes
and Northeast late next week, sending temps crashing back down to
below average for Friday. After another cold day Saturday, a
warmup is expected to commence by Sunday.
The configuration of the upper flow pattern is not expected to
change much over the upcoming 7 days. Northwest flow will prevail
aloft over the Plains, with no upper troughing expected to our
west. This is a drier pattern for this part of the world and this
forecast will be no different.
The current negative phase of the AO (Arctic Oscillation)
definitely favors a southward plunge of arctic air into the
country as is forecast by the models for the latter part of next
week, the brunt of which is likely to be to our north and east.
The latest GEFS forecasts have the AO increasing back to neutral
or even positive by the middle of the month, which would be less
favorable for arctic intrusions into the country and may lead to
warmer weather for the latter half of the month. Time will tell.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Mainly MVFR ceilings will prevail through the forecast period.
North winds will increase this morning following the passage of a
cold front and will gust to near or above 20 knots at times today.
The winds will diminish this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 42 25 47 33 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 50 31 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 27 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 41 22 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 45 26 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 44 28 46 34 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 45 26 47 33 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 43 24 45 31 / 0 0 0 0
F10 44 25 48 33 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 51 30 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...4
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251207T1442.txt
992
FXUS64 KTSA 071137
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
537 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 536 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
- While some fog is possible overnight into Sunday morning ahead
of a cold front, widespread dense fog like what occurred last
night is not expected.
- A cold front will move across the region on Sunday, with breezy
northwest winds behind it. A combination of colder air and low
clouds moving into the region behind the front will yield below
average cool weather for Sunday.
- Above average warm weather is expected Tuesday to Thursday
before another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end
of the week.
- Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Current surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over
eastern KS, with a trailing cold front over central KS moving
toward the region. Ahead of the front, a cool and relatively
moist low level air mass remains in place, but this time with a
large area of low cloud over NE OK and NW AR. While skies have
cleared over SE OK and some fog is showing up over SW AR, low
clouds are either redeveloping or will be surging north into the
region later on tonight. All of this is to say that confidence in
a widespread dense fog event like what occurred last night does
not appear to be in the offing for tonight. Will let the midnight
shift reevaluate and issue an advisory if needed.
The cold front will enter NE OK after 3 AM and will sweep
southeast across the forecast area by midday. Gusty northwest
winds are expected behind the front, though not to advisory level.
A bank of low cloud dropping south out of Nebraska will surge into
the region toward daybreak and will overspread much of the
forecast area through the day. There is some potential that areas
west of highway 75 could see some rays of sun toward the end of
the day. The cold advection behind the front and low cloud will
hold highs below average for Sunday.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Low clouds will likely persist over portions of eastern OK into
western AR into Monday morning. However, as we head into next week
the upper trough over the Plains will be shifting east, and the
resulting downslope flow will lead to clearing skies, more
sunshine and much warmer temps. Highs Tuesday through Thursday
will be above average for this time of year, climbing into the 50s
and 60s. Another cold front is expected by Thursday night, and
this will be a glancing blow of arctic air that is expected to
plunge south with a piece of the polar vortex into the Great Lakes
and Northeast late next week, sending temps crashing back down to
below average for Friday. After another cold day Saturday, a
warmup is expected to commence by Sunday.
The configuration of the upper flow pattern is not expected to
change much over the upcoming 7 days. Northwest flow will prevail
aloft over the Plains, with no upper troughing expected to our
west. This is a drier pattern for this part of the world and this
forecast will be no different.
The current negative phase of the AO (Arctic Oscillation)
definitely favors a southward plunge of arctic air into the
country as is forecast by the models for the latter part of next
week, the brunt of which is likely to be to our north and east.
The latest GEFS forecasts have the AO increasing back to neutral
or even positive by the middle of the month, which would be less
favorable for arctic intrusions into the country and may lead to
warmer weather for the latter half of the month. Time will tell.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025
Mainly MVFR ceilings will prevail through the forecast period.
North winds will increase this morning following the passage of a
cold front and will gust to near or above 20 knots at times today.
The winds will diminish this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 42 25 47 33 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 50 31 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 27 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 41 22 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 44 26 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 43 28 46 34 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 44 26 47 33 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 40 24 45 31 / 0 0 0 0
F10 44 25 48 33 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 51 30 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ049-053-
071-073>076.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251207T1137.txt
922
FXUS64 KTSA 070459
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1059 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
- While some fog is possible overnight into Sunday morning ahead
of a cold front, widespread dense fog like what occurred last
night is not expected.
- A cold front will move across the region on Sunday, with breezy
northwest winds behind it. A combination of colder air and low
clouds moving into the region behind the front will yield below
average cool weather for Sunday.
- Above average warm weather is expected Tuesday to Thursday
before another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end
of the week.
- Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Current surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over
eastern KS, with a trailing cold front over central KS moving
toward the region. Ahead of the front, a cool and relatively
moist low level air mass remains in place, but this time with a
large area of low cloud over NE OK and NW AR. While skies have
cleared over SE OK and some fog is showing up over SW AR, low
clouds are either redeveloping or will be surging north into the
region later on tonight. All of this is to say that confidence in
a widespread dense fog event like what occurred last night does
not appear to be in the offing for tonight. Will let the midnight
shift reevaluate and issue an advisory if needed.
The cold front will enter NE OK after 3 AM and will sweep
southeast across the forecast area by midday. Gusty northwest
winds are expected behind the front, though not to advisory level.
A bank of low cloud dropping south out of Nebraska will surge into
the region toward daybreak and will overspread much of the
forecast area through the day. There is some potential that areas
west of highway 75 could see some rays of sun toward the end of
the day. The cold advection behind the front and low cloud will
hold highs below average for Sunday.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
Low clouds will likely persist over portions of eastern OK into
western AR into Monday morning. However, as we head into next week
the upper trough over the Plains will be shifting east, and the
resulting downslope flow will lead to clearing skies, more
sunshine and much warmer temps. Highs Tuesday through Thursday
will be above average for this time of year, climbing into the 50s
and 60s. Another cold front is expected by Thursday night, and
this will be a glancing blow of arctic air that is expected to
plunge south with a piece of the polar vortex into the Great Lakes
and Northeast late next week, sending temps crashing back down to
below average for Friday. After another cold day Saturday, a
warmup is expected to commence by Sunday.
The configuration of the upper flow pattern is not expected to
change much over the upcoming 7 days. Northwest flow will prevail
aloft over the Plains, with no upper troughing expected to our
west. This is a drier pattern for this part of the world and this
forecast will be no different.
The current negative phase of the AO (Arctic Oscillation)
definitely favors a southward plunge of arctic air into the
country as is forecast by the models for the latter part of next
week, the brunt of which is likely to be to our north and east.
The latest GEFS forecasts have the AO increasing back to neutral
or even positive by the middle of the month, which would be less
favorable for arctic intrusions into the country and may lead to
warmer weather for the latter half of the month. Time will tell.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025
IFR/MVFR conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CWA
tonight into Sunday morning while a dry frontal boundary moves
through the region. There remains potential for LIFR conditions for
KMLC, which the low level clouds have cleared as of 05z. Behind the
frontal passage, breezy north/northwesterly winds and MVFR ceilings
are forecast through Sunday afternoon. Once the mid/upper level trof
axis exits Sunday evening there are indications for cloud cover to
become more scattered west to east. For now will add a mention to
eastern Oklahoma and hold onto MVFR for far northwest Arkansas
Sunday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 46 34 42 25 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 52 37 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 51 37 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 48 31 41 22 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 52 36 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 53 37 43 28 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 52 36 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 49 34 40 24 / 0 0 0 0
F10 49 35 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 51 39 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20251207T0459.txt
