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014
FXUS64 KTSA 241119
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
619 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
- Areas of dense fog are possible Saturday night and Sunday
morning across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.
- After a relative lull Sunday into Monday, near daily rain
chances are expected this week. Locally heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding will be the main threats.
- Temperatures remain near average for much of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Showers and thunderstorms which produced heavy rainfall in NW AR
Saturday evening have weekend significantly, with only a few
light showers remaining. A slight chance of rain persists early
tonight, but precipitation will become increasingly sparse and
focused to the east of the area. Short term guidance suggests at
least patchy fog development will be possible for much of the FA
overnight/Sunday morning, with the greatest potential across NE OK
into NW AR. Fog may become dense with visibilities less than one
mile, especially in areas which received heavy rains Saturday.
After fog dissipates Sunday morning, mostly quiet and
predominantly dry conditions are likely for the remainder of the
day. High temperatures generally remain within a few degrees of 80
with light NE winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Dry conditions persist Sunday night into the first part of Monday
before an upper low gradually lifts northward out of
Texas/Louisiana. This will provide increasing rain and storm
chances across SE OK and into W-Central AR Monday afternoon and
evening. The low continues to lift north through E OK and W AR on
Tuesday, providing shower and thunderstorm chances for the entire
forecast area, with the highest QPF across our AR zones. A
shortwave then rotates through the region Wednesday and Thursday,
keeping PoPs elevated areawide. By late week, an omega blocking
pattern develops across the northern states with low pressure
aloft tending to linger across the Southern Plains. This will keep
daily rain and storm chances in the forecast through next
weekend. While generally weak wind shear will help keep severe
weather chances low through much of the extended period, heavy
rainfall and flash flooding potential will continue to be a
concern. Temperatures remain near average for the next several
days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Fog and stratus will continue to significantly impact flight
conditions from southeast OK through northwest AR at the beginning
of the forecast period, with IFR/LIFR common through about 14z.
Quick improvement should follow. Fog will be more patchy in
nature across northeast OK. Outside of early this morning, VFR
conditions will prevail, with lower potential for fog tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 82 61 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 85 64 84 65 / 0 0 20 40
MLC 84 62 85 64 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 82 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 82 59 83 63 / 0 0 20 30
BYV 80 59 81 62 / 0 0 20 30
MKO 82 61 84 64 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 82 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
F10 82 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 83 64 82 65 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-057-
058-062-063-068-069-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-
010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260524T1119.txt
739
FXUS64 KTSA 240520
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
- Areas of dense fog are possible Saturday night and Sunday
morning across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.
- After a relative lull Sunday into Monday, near daily rain
chances are expected this week. Locally heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding will be the main threats.
- Temperatures remain near average for much of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Showers and thunderstorms which produced heavy rainfall in NW AR
Saturday evening have weekend significantly, with only a few
light showers remaining. A slight chance of rain persists early
tonight, but precipitation will become increasingly sparse and
focused to the east of the area. Short term guidance suggests at
least patchy fog development will be possible for much of the FA
overnight/Sunday morning, with the greatest potential across NE OK
into NW AR. Fog may become dense with visibilities less than one
mile, especially in areas which received heavy rains Saturday.
After fog dissipates Sunday morning, mostly quiet and
predominantly dry conditions are likely for the remainder of the
day. High temperatures generally remain within a few degrees of 80
with light NE winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Dry conditions persist Sunday night into the first part of Monday
before an upper low gradually lifts northward out of
Texas/Louisiana. This will provide increasing rain and storm
chances across SE OK and into W-Central AR Monday afternoon and
evening. The low continues to lift north through E OK and W AR on
Tuesday, providing shower and thunderstorm chances for the entire
forecast area, with the highest QPF across our AR zones. A
shortwave then rotates through the region Wednesday and Thursday,
keeping PoPs elevated areawide. By late week, an omega blocking
pattern develops across the northern states with low pressure
aloft tending to linger across the Southern Plains. This will keep
daily rain and storm chances in the forecast through next
weekend. While generally weak wind shear will help keep severe
weather chances low through much of the extended period, heavy
rainfall and flash flooding potential will continue to be a
concern. Temperatures remain near average for the next several
days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Primary aviation impact for tonight into early Sunday morning
will be development of areas of fog as clouds continue to scatter.
Potential for higher impact fog in the LIFR category will be
focused across northwest AR, though most other areas will have at
least a low probability. Conditions should improve quickly after
sunrise with VFR conditions prevailing at all locations after
14z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 61 84 64 81 / 0 0 0 40
FSM 64 84 65 83 / 0 20 40 60
MLC 62 85 64 83 / 0 10 10 50
BVO 57 85 60 82 / 0 0 0 40
FYV 59 83 63 80 / 0 20 30 70
BYV 59 81 62 78 / 0 20 30 70
MKO 61 84 64 80 / 0 10 10 50
MIO 59 84 63 80 / 0 0 0 50
F10 60 85 63 81 / 0 0 10 40
HHW 64 82 65 82 / 0 20 20 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260524T0520.txt
894
FXUS64 KTSA 240447
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
- Areas of dense fog are possible Saturday night and Sunday
morning across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.
- After a relative lull Sunday into Monday, near daily rain
chances are expected this week. Locally heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding will be the main threats.
- Temperatures remain near average for much of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Showers and thunderstorms which produced heavy rainfall in NW AR
Saturday evening have weekend significantly, with only a few
light showers remaining. A slight chance of rain persists early
tonight, but precipitation will become increasingly sparse and
focused to the east of the area. Short term guidance suggests at
least patchy fog development will be possible for much of the FA
overnight/Sunday morning, with the greatest potential across NE OK
into NW AR. Fog may become dense with visibilities less than one
mile, especially in areas which received heavy rains Saturday.
After fog dissipates Sunday morning, mostly quiet and
predominantly dry conditions are likely for the remainder of the
day. High temperatures generally remain within a few degrees of 80
with light NE winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Dry conditions persist Sunday night into the first part of Monday
before an upper low gradually lifts northward out of
Texas/Louisiana. This will provide increasing rain and storm
chances across SE OK and into W-Central AR Monday afternoon and
evening. The low continues to lift north through E OK and W AR on
Tuesday, providing shower and thunderstorm chances for the entire
forecast area, with the highest QPF across our AR zones. A
shortwave then rotates through the region Wednesday and Thursday,
keeping PoPs elevated areawide. By late week, an omega blocking
pattern develops across the northern states with low pressure
aloft tending to linger across the Southern Plains. This will keep
daily rain and storm chances in the forecast through next
weekend. While generally weak wind shear will help keep severe
weather chances low through much of the extended period, heavy
rainfall and flash flooding potential will continue to be a
concern. Temperatures remain near average for the next several
days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds will continue into this
evening over the CWA as an area of low pressure lifts northeast
out of the region. Scattered rain showers along with a low thunder
potential will also remain common for mainly far eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas into mid evening and then begin to taper
off and exit tonight. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are
capable within the stronger showers and any storm development.
Overnight tonight into Sunday morning, cloud cover is forecast to
scatter out which will aid the development of fog across parts of
the CWA. Will continue with tempo groups for timing of the greater
potential, with the greater chance of LIFR conditions over far
northwest Arkansas. Conditions should improve after sunrise, with
a few passing mid/high clouds Sunday afternoon. Winds through the
period remain light/variable into Sunday and then become more east
to northeast Sunday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 61 82 61 84 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 63 85 64 84 / 30 0 0 20
MLC 62 84 62 85 / 10 0 0 10
BVO 57 82 57 85 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 58 82 59 83 / 40 0 0 20
BYV 59 80 59 81 / 70 0 0 20
MKO 61 82 61 84 / 10 0 0 10
MIO 59 82 59 84 / 20 0 0 0
F10 60 82 60 85 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 64 83 64 82 / 10 0 0 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260524T0447.txt
068
FXUS64 KTSA 232338
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
- Some patchy dense fog is possible again tonight across
portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
- Showers and storms to taper off this evening. After a relative
lull Sunday and Monday, near daily rain chances are expected
next week. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat.
- Temperatures warm back to near normal for much of the next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
An MCV left from the storms last night continues to spin over
northeast OK early this afternoon. A band of rain and embedded
thunder extends from the low to the southeast into west-central
AR. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest the MCV and associated
precip will lift slowly northeast through the afternoon and
evening. The latest mesoanalysis shows some destabilization has
occurred north of the area of rain across southeast KS, far
northeast OK and northwest AR. This is where the greatest coverage
of more spotty showers and storms will be, as indicated on radar
mosaic. Additional development is possible further south through
the afternoon as well as environment becomes at least weakly
unstable. Severe weather is not expected owing to insufficient
deep layer shear. Rain/storm coverage should decrease this evening
with a mostly quiet night expected. The latest guidance clears
skies enough across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to
allow for fog development toward daybreak Sunday morning.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The latest CAMs and global models forecast a mostly quiet day on
Sunday, aside from maybe an isolated shower or storm in the
terrain of SE OK and NW AR during the afternoon. Monday will be
quiet for most, with increasing PoPs from the southeast Monday
afternoon and night in association with an approaching upper low
from the ArkLaTex. The upper low will lift N/NNW over the region
on Tuesday, yielding higher areawide PoPs that day. Another wave
will lift north into the area from TX on Wednesday, keeping higher
more areawide PoPs going. A trough of low pressure aloft will
remain over the region through the end of the week, trapped
beneath an omega block in the higher latitudes. Expect daily
rain/storm chances to continue.
With weak flow aloft, severe potential will be pretty low.
However, slow-moving storms could drop locally heavy rainfall and
lead to isolated flash flooding.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds will continue into this
evening over the CWA as an area of low pressure lifts northeast
out of the region. Scattered rain showers along with a low thunder
potential will also remain common for mainly far eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas into mid evening and then begin to taper
off and exit tonight. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are
capable within the stronger showers and any storm development.
Overnight tonight into Sunday morning, cloud cover is forecast to
scatter out which will aid the development of fog across parts of
the CWA. Will continue with tempo groups for timing of the greater
potential, with the greater chance of LIFR conditions over far
northwest Arkansas. Conditions should improve after sunrise, with
a few passing mid/high clouds Sunday afternoon. Winds through the
period remain light/variable into Sunday and then become more east
to northeast Sunday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 61 82 63 83 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 63 84 65 83 / 30 20 10 20
MLC 62 83 64 83 / 10 10 0 20
BVO 57 82 58 84 / 20 0 0 0
FYV 58 82 58 81 / 50 10 0 30
BYV 59 80 61 79 / 70 10 0 20
MKO 61 82 62 82 / 20 10 0 10
MIO 59 81 61 83 / 30 0 0 0
F10 60 82 62 83 / 10 0 0 10
HHW 64 81 65 80 / 20 20 10 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260523T2338.txt
785
FXUS64 KTSA 231728 CCA
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
- Some patchy dense fog is possible again tonight across
portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
- Showers and storms to continue this afternoon and taper off
this evening. After a relative lull Sunday and Monday, near
daily rain chances are expected next week. Locally heavy
rainfall will be the main threat.
- Temperatures warm back to near normal for much of the next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
An MCV left from the storms last night continues to spin over
northeast OK early this afternoon. A band of rain and embedded
thunder extends from the low to the southeast into west-central
AR. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest the MCV and associated
precip will lift slowly northeast through the afternoon and
evening. The latest mesoanalysis shows some destabilization has
occurred north of the area of rain across southeast KS, far
northeast OK and northwest AR. This is where the greatest coverage
of more spotty showers and storms will be, as indicated on radar
mosaic. Additional development is possible further south through
the afternoon as well as environment becomes at least weakly
unstable. Severe weather is not expected owing to insufficient
deep layer shear. Rain/storm coverage should decrease this evening
with a mostly quiet night expected. The latest guidance clears
skies enough across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to
allow for fog development toward daybreak Sunday morning.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The latest CAMs and global models forecast a mostly quiet day on
Sunday, aside from maybe an isolated shower or storm in the
terrain of SE OK and NW AR during the afternoon. Monday will be
quiet for most, with increasing PoPs from the southeast Monday
afternoon and night in association with an approaching upper low
from the ArkLaTex. The upper low will lift N/NNW over the region
on Tuesday, yielding higher areawide PoPs that day. Another wave
will lift north into the area from TX on Wednesday, keeping higher
more areawide PoPs going. A trough of low pressure aloft will
remain over the region through the end of the week, trapped
beneath an omega block in the higher latitudes. Expect daily
rain/storm chances to continue.
With weak flow aloft, severe potential will be pretty low.
However, slow-moving storms could drop locally heavy rainfall and
lead to isolated flash flooding.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
A band of light to moderate rain, with pockets of heavy rain and
lightning, continues to fall mainly across NE OK and W-C AR early
this afternoon. The (mostly) stratiform rain shield will gradually
shift into far NW AR over the next couple of hours. Precipitation is
expected to lift northeast through the afternoon and exit the
forecast area by early to mid evening. With a worked over atmosphere
currently in place, lightning chances are fairly low. Therefore,
removed any chance of thunder from the TAFs for now, but may need to
be amended and added if a thunderstorm does form and approaches any
terminal this afternoon. VFR is expected to prevail through the
afternoon and evening, though any heavier rain bands and cores will
have the potential to cause MVFR and IFR cigs/vis to briefly develop
underneath them. Patchy to areas of dense fog is expected to develop
again tonight, mainly after midnight. The densest fog is anticipated
to impact parts of NW AR overnight tonight and near daybreak Sunday,
though lighter, patchy fog may form across portions of E OK.
Included TEMPO groups for MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions due to fog
generally from after midnight through about 13-14Z Sunday. By late
morning, VFR prevails through the remainder of the period.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 61 82 63 83 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 63 84 65 83 / 50 20 10 20
MLC 62 83 64 83 / 10 10 0 20
BVO 57 82 58 84 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 58 82 58 81 / 60 10 0 30
BYV 59 80 61 79 / 70 10 0 20
MKO 61 82 62 82 / 20 10 0 10
MIO 59 81 61 83 / 40 0 0 0
F10 60 82 62 83 / 20 0 0 10
HHW 64 81 65 80 / 20 20 10 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260523T1728.txt
612
FXUS64 KTSA 231727
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
- Some patchy dense fog is possible again tonight across
portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
- Showers and storms to continue this afternoon and taper off
this evening. After a relative lull Sunday and Monday, near
daily rain chances are expected next week. Locally heavy
rainfall will be the main threat.
- Temperatures warm back to near normal for much of the next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
An MCV left from the storms last night continues to spin over
northeast OK early this afternoon. A band of rain and embedded
thunder extends from the low to the southeast into west-central
AR. The latest runs of the HRRR suggest the MCV and associated
precip will lift slowly northeast through the afternoon and
evening. The latest mesoanalysis shows some destabilization has
occurred north of the area of rain across southeast KS, far
northeast OK and northwest AR. This is where the greatest coverage
of more spotty showers and storms will be, as indicated on radar
mosaic. Additional development is possible further south through
the afternoon as well as environment becomes at least weakly
unstable. Severe weather is not expected owing to insufficient
deep layer shear. Rain/storm coverage should decrease this evening
with a mostly quiet night expected. The latest guidance clears
skies enough across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas to
allow for fog development toward daybreak Sunday morning.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The latest CAMs and global models forecast a mostly quiet day on
Sunday, aside from maybe an isolated shower or storm in the
terrain of SE OK and NW AR during the afternoon. Monday will be
quiet for most, with increasing PoPs from the southeast Monday
afternoon and night in association with an approaching upper low
from the ArkLaTex. The upper low will lift N/NNW over the region
on Tuesday, yielding higher areawide PoPs that day. Another wave
will lift north into the area from TX on Wednesday, keeping higher
more areawide PoPs going. A trough of low pressure aloft will
remain over the region through the end of the week, trapped
beneath an omega block in the higher latitudes. Expect daily
rain/storm chances to continue.
With weak flow aloft, severe potential will be pretty low.
However, slow-moving storms could drop locally heavy rainfall and
lead to isolated flash flooding.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
A band of light to moderate rain, with pockets of heavy rain and
lightning, continues to fall mainly across NE OK and W-C AR early
this afternoon. The (mostly) stratiform rain shield will gradually
shift into far NW AR over the next couple of hours. Precipitation is
expected to lift northeast through the afternoon and exit the
forecast area by early to mid evening. With a worked over atmosphere
currently in place, lightning chances are fairly low. Therefore,
removed any chance of thunder from the TAFs for now, but may need to
be amended and added if a thunderstorm does form and approaches any
terminal this afternoon. VFR is expected to prevail through the
afternoon and evening, though any heavier rain bands and cores will
have the potential to cause MVFR and IFR cigs/vis to briefly develop
underneath them. Patchy to areas of dense fog is expected to develop
again tonight, mainly after midnight. The densest fog is anticipated
to impact parts of NW AR overnight tonight and near daybreak Sunday,
though lighter, patchy fog may form across portions of E OK.
Included TEMPO groups for MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions due to fog
generally from after midnight through about 13-14Z Sunday. By late
morning, VFR prevails through the remainder of the period.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 61 82 63 83 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 63 84 65 83 / 50 20 10 20
MLC 62 83 64 83 / 10 10 0 20
BVO 57 82 58 84 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 58 82 58 81 / 60 10 0 30
BYV 59 80 61 79 / 70 10 0 20
MKO 61 82 62 82 / 20 10 0 10
MIO 59 81 61 83 / 40 0 0 0
F10 60 82 62 83 / 20 0 0 10
HHW 64 81 65 80 / 20 20 10 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KTSA/FXUS64/20260523T1727.txt
