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891
FXUS64 KFWD 081153
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light to moderate rain will continue across Central Texas and
southern North Texas this morning, then shift southward into
Central Texas this afternoon before ending tonight. Rainfall
totals up to 1 inch are possible.
- Warmer, above-normal temperatures are expected Monday through
Wednesday, with a few showers possible Monday and Tuesday.
- A cold front will bring cooler, near-normal temperatures for
the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through tonight)
Issued at 1216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
Radar imagery this morning shows light to moderate rain continues
near/south of the I-20 corridor across southern North Texas and
most of Central Texas. This activity is occurring out ahead of an
upper level low located over northern Mexico that is slowly moving
eastward towards Texas. Rainfall has been heavier than guidance
had suggested over the past few days, with a few lightning strikes
even noted at times, and some areas of Central Texas may wind up
near or over 1 inch of rain from this event. Rain is expected to
continue through the day but gradually shift southward with time
as the primary upper lift focuses into South Texas, with rain
ending across our cwa this evening/tonight. Similar to yesterday,
widespread clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures cool
with highs only in the 60s to low 70s and lows tonight in the mid
40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
The aforementioned upper level low will shift eastward across the
state and across North Texas from Monday into Tuesday, which will
bring a few additional but much more widely scattered showers to
North and Central Texas both days. A return of southerly winds
also means an uptick in temperatures with highs/lows a few
degrees warmer than previous days.
As the upper low shifts away from our neck of the woods and
weakens by midweek, global models depict a weak H5 ridge quickly
shifting southeastward across our region. This will bring a dry
and unusually warm November day to North and Central Texas on
Wednesday with highs well into the 70s and 80s, which is around
10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. This warmth
will be short-lived, however, as 00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF show
strong northerly flow developing aloft behind the ridge forcing a
cold front through the state late Wednesday into Thursday.
Guidance differs on just how strong this front will be, with the
GFS notably much colder than the ECWMF and NBM guidance. At this
range, appears the coldest air will be shunted off to our east
into the southeast CONUS, giving us just a glancing cooler blow
that will knock temperatures back down to near normal levels for
mid-November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
Earlier light rain in D10 has shifted south and east and
anticipated VFR cigs with dry conditions the rest of the TAF
period. Light northeast winds today will shift to westerly this
evening/tonight but remain at or below 4 knots.
At ACT, IFR cigs have not materialized so far but with widespread
surrounding IFR cigs will keep a tempo group for IFR through 16Z.
Otherwise, off and on light rain will continue today with VFR
cigs predominating, before fog brings another round of IFR
conditions late in the TAF period. Light northeast winds today
will become light northwesterly tonight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 53 73 56 / 0 0 0 10
Waco 68 52 70 54 / 30 10 10 10
Paris 71 44 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 72 46 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 72 47 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 72 54 73 57 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 70 48 72 52 / 10 0 0 10
Corsicana 69 53 70 55 / 10 0 0 10
Temple 66 54 68 54 / 60 10 10 10
Mineral Wells 70 50 72 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20261108T1153.txt
921
FXUS64 KFWD 080629
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1229 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light to moderate rain will continue across Central Texas and
southern North Texas this morning, then shift southward into
Central Texas this afternoon before ending tonight. Rainfall
totals up to 1 inch are possible.
- Warmer, above-normal temperatures are expected Monday through
Wednesday, with a few showers possible Monday and Tuesday.
- A cold front will bring cooler, near-normal temperatures for
the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through tonight)
Issued at 1216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
Radar imagery this morning shows light to moderate rain continues
near/south of the I-20 corridor across southern North Texas and
most of Central Texas. This activity is occurring out ahead of an
upper level low located over northern Mexico that is slowly moving
eastward towards Texas. Rainfall has been heavier than guidance
had suggested over the past few days, with a few lightning strikes
even noted at times, and some areas of Central Texas may wind up
near or over 1 inch of rain from this event. Rain is expected to
continue through the day but gradually shift southward with time
as the primary upper lift focuses into South Texas, with rain
ending across our cwa this evening/tonight. Similar to yesterday,
widespread clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures cool
with highs only in the 60s to low 70s and lows tonight in the mid
40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
The aforementioned upper level low will shift eastward across the
state and across North Texas from Monday into Tuesday, which will
bring a few additional but much more widely scattered showers to
North and Central Texas both days. A return of southerly winds
also means an uptick in temperatures with highs/lows a few
degrees warmer than previous days.
As the upper low shifts away from our neck of the woods and
weakens by midweek, global models depict a weak H5 ridge quickly
shifting southeastward across our region. This will bring a dry
and unusually warm November day to North and Central Texas on
Wednesday with highs well into the 70s and 80s, which is around
10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. This warmth
will be short-lived, however, as 00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF show
strong northerly flow developing aloft behind the ridge forcing a
cold front through the state late Wednesday into Thursday.
Guidance differs on just how strong this front will be, with the
GFS notably much colder than the ECWMF and NBM guidance. At this
range, appears the coldest air will be shunted off to our east
into the southeast CONUS, giving us just a glancing cooler blow
that will knock temperatures back down to near normal levels for
mid-November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
VFR conditions will continue in D10 this TAF period with light
rain expected to stay just south of the Metroplex airports this
morning although will get close to GKY. Light north to northeast
winds up to 5 knots are expected through 09/00Z, before a switch
to light southwesterly winds less than 5 knots occurs after 00Z.
For ACT, light to moderate rain will continue through 15Z this
morning with MVFR/IFR cigs/vis and light north winds. Cigs will
improve to MVFR after 15Z with light rain anticipated to stay just
south of the airport. After the current TAF period, fog may bring
MVFR/IFR conditions to ACT once again early Monday morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1216 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 53 73 56 / 0 0 0 10
Waco 68 52 70 54 / 30 10 10 10
Paris 71 44 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 72 46 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 72 47 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 72 54 73 57 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 70 48 72 52 / 0 0 0 10
Corsicana 69 53 70 55 / 10 0 0 10
Temple 66 54 68 54 / 60 10 10 10
Mineral Wells 70 50 72 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20261108T0629.txt
750
FXUS64 KFWD 080002
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloudy and cool conditions are expected through Monday followed
by warmer and dry weather for the middle of next week.
- Scattered light rain will spread across Central Texas later
today and continue through Sunday night, with a few showers
across North and Central Texas on Monday into Monday night.
- Most areas will see rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or
less, but parts of western Central Texas could see over a half
inch of rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Abundant upper level cloudiness will continue to stream eastward
across North Central Texas this afternoon, ahead of a nearly
stationary closed low over Northwest Mexico. Ahead of this main
feature, a weaker advance shortwave, coupled with modest lower
level isentropic upglide, will combine to produce lift across
Central Texas from this evening through midday Sunday.
Areas of light rain should develop and expand in coverage across
our southwestern zones by mid evening, where the better lift and
moisture convergence coincide. The northern edge of this shield
may approach the I-20 corridor - especially west of I-35 - later
tonight, but am not confident that very much precipitation will
actually reach the ground along this northern edge. Rainfall will
be slightly more generous farther south, though average amounts
should remain below one quarter to one half inch in most areas
overnight. Maintained the broad outlines of the NBM's PoPs through
tonight in our southern counties, but did dial back the
probabilities somewhat in areas closer to I-20.
The magnitude of the forcing for ascent seems to wane slightly
after daybreak Sunday, per the short-term RRFS and HRRR guidance.
As a result, PoPs will be limited to areas south of a Comanche to
Waco to Centerville line.
After a seasonably cool, fall-like day today, daytime temperatures
on Sunday will rebound slightly, into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
The various conventional and AI-based ensemble systems are
consistent in moving the closed upper low (now over NW Mexico)
eastward, opening it to a wave, and absorbing it into the mean
northwesterly flow regime by early next week. We'll flirt with
some intermittent low PoPs Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly in the
eastern and southern zones, as this wave opens and shifts eastward
across the region. Most locations, however, will remain rain-free
next week.
Day to day temperatures will moderate through mid week, with
increased thicknesses and downslope southwest to west low level
flow providing periods of compressional warming. Highs by
Wednesday will be pushing 80 degrees in some areas, which is at
least 10 degrees above normal for mid November. A weak front may
move through North Texas by Wednesday night, bringing afternoon
highs on Thursday and Friday closer to seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
D10:
2330Z radar depicts scattered showers across the JEN cornerpost.
Current expectations are for this activity to struggle as it
approaches the D10 airspace.
VFR should prevail through the period. Isolated rain
showers/sprinkles will be possible tonight into Sunday morning as
ascent downstream of a mid/upper low positioned over Northern
Mexico impinges on North Texas. While radar may present with some
echoes, relatively dry air in the low levels should prevent most
of the precipitation from reaching the surface.
A surface high will move overhead on Sunday, resulting in light
winds through the period. Flow will generally be out of the
northeast, though variable at times.
ACT:
Periods of light rain will begin after 03Z this evening, lasting
through around 13Z Sunday morning. While a few showers may linger
through mid-afternoon, expectations are for the steadier rain to
remain southwest. Low-level drying should allow for MVFR cigs to
scatter out tomorrow afternoon; there is considerable discrepancy
between the high-res and global guidance on when this may occur.
Hedged towards the more-recent high-res guidance, though
refinements in MVFR to VFR timing may be needed in future cycles
should ceilings look to remain MVFR for longer.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1210 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 71 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 54 70 52 70 / 40 20 0 10
Paris 47 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 47 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 49 71 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 54 72 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 52 72 48 73 / 0 10 0 0
Corsicana 55 70 52 70 / 20 10 0 0
Temple 56 68 54 69 / 70 50 40 10
Mineral Wells 50 71 49 72 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Dornsife
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20261108T0002.txt
569
FXUS64 KFWD 071841
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1241 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloudy and cool conditions are expected through Monday followed
by warmer and dry weather for the middle of next week.
- Scattered light rain will spread across Central Texas later
today and continue through Sunday night, with a few showers
across North and Central Texas on Monday into Monday night.
- Most areas will see rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or
less, but parts of western Central Texas could see over a half
inch of rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Abundant upper level cloudiness will continue to stream eastward
across North Central Texas this afternoon, ahead of a nearly
stationary closed low over Northwest Mexico. Ahead of this main
feature, a weaker advance shortwave, coupled with modest lower
level isentropic upglide, will combine to produce lift across
Central Texas from this evening through midday Sunday.
Areas of light rain should develop and expand in coverage across
our southwestern zones by mid evening, where the better lift and
moisture convergence coincide. The northern edge of this shield
may approach the I-20 corridor - especially west of I-35 - later
tonight, but am not confident that very much precipitation will
actually reach the ground along this northern edge. Rainfall will
be slightly more generous farther south, though average amounts
should remain below one quarter to one half inch in most areas
overnight. Maintained the broad outlines of the NBM's PoPs through
tonight in our southern counties, but did dial back the
probabilities somewhat in areas closer to I-20.
The magnitude of the forcing for ascent seems to wane slightly
after daybreak Sunday, per the short-term RRFS and HRRR guidance.
As a result, PoPs will be limited to areas south of a Comanche to
Waco to Centerville line.
After a seasonably cool, fall-like day today, daytime temperatures
on Sunday will rebound slightly, into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
The various conventional and AI-based ensemble systems are
consistent in moving the closed upper low (now over NW Mexico)
eastward, opening it to a wave, and absorbing it into the mean
northwesterly flow regime by early next week. We'll flirt with
some intermittent low PoPs Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly in the
eastern and southern zones, as this wave opens and shifts eastward
across the region. Most locations, however, will remain rain-free
next week.
Day to day temperatures will moderate through mid week, with
increased thicknesses and downslope southwest to west low level
flow providing periods of compressional warming. Highs by
Wednesday will be pushing 80 degrees in some areas, which is at
least 10 degrees above normal for mid November. A weak front may
move through North Texas by Wednesday night, bringing afternoon
highs on Thursday and Friday closer to seaonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
VFR conditions should prevail at the D10 TAF sites through midday
Sunday. However, substantial mid and high level cloudiness will
likely stream across the region throughout the period, ahead of a
slow moving upper level low over Northwest Mexico. This feature
will provide the lift necessary for the development of lower MVFR
clouds and patchy light rain across Central Texas after 00z this
evening. While little, if any, of this precipitation will reach
the ground in D10, areas farther south will experience
intermittent showers through Sunday morning. Waco, in particular,
will see the MVFR ceilings developing after 04z tonight,
accompanied by periods of light rain through 14z.
Surface high pressure to the North of Texas, coupled with a low
over Northern Mexico, will facilitate persistent north to
northeast winds at all TAF sites today through Sunday, at speeds
averaging 4 to 9 knots.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1210 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 53 71 52 72 / 10 0 0 0
Waco 53 70 52 70 / 50 20 0 10
Paris 46 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 45 71 45 72 / 20 0 0 0
McKinney 47 70 47 71 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 53 71 52 72 / 10 0 0 0
Terrell 50 70 47 71 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 54 70 51 70 / 30 10 0 0
Temple 55 68 54 69 / 60 60 20 20
Mineral Wells 48 70 48 72 / 30 10 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Bradshaw
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KFWD/FXUS64/20261107T1841.txt
