228 
ACUS03 KWNS 240756
SWODY3
SPC AC 240755

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Across this region,
possible hazards will include large to very large hail, severe
gusts, and perhaps a tornado.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tuesday.
The subtropical jet will increase across Baja California into
Mexico, with modest westerly flow aloft extending across western
Texas. Scattered severe storms will be possible across portions of
western Texas and central Montana.

...Western Texas into southeastern New Mexico...
Modest westerly flow aloft will extend into western Texas Tuesday
afternoon. Easterly upslope flow across the high terrain of the
Davis Mountains and Stockton/Edwards Plateau and subtle mid-level
forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm
activity by the afternoon. Daytime heating will allow for
temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s in combination with
mid 50s to 60s dew points yielding an axis of moderate to strong
instability from just east of Big Bend and north to the southern
Permian Basin. In addition, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse
rates will overspread the region by the afternoon. Forecast
soundings suggest around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear, which will support
supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts.
Initially, hodographs will be generally straight but increasing
southeasterly flow by the evening may support potential for
increasing low-level shear and perhaps a tornado.

...Montana...
Increasing mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will overspread
portions of central Montana Tuesday afternoon, supporting scattered
thunderstorms by the afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates
and modest instability/shear will support potential for a few
instances of large hail and severe gusts.

..Thornton.. 05/24/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS03/20260524T0756.txt



113 
ACUS03 KWNS 231927
SWODY3
SPC AC 231926

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for
Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Little change to the overall pattern expected across the CONUS on
Monday. A very slow-moving mid/upper low/trough is expected to
remain in the vicinity of east TX/western LA, which will maintain
potential for scattered to widespread thunderstorms across parts of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Another slow-moving mid/upper trough
will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest
and southern Rockies. A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough
will move into the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon and
evening. 

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region...
Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop Monday afternoon
from parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes,
though some uncertainty remains regarding the quality of low-level
moisture across this region. 

Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow will result in 30-40 kt of
effective shear across parts of MN/WI and Upper MI, but confidence
in storm development within this conditionally favorable environment
is low, with midlevel height rises and generally minimal large-scale
ascent expected across the region. 

Forcing will also be weak into parts of the central Plains, but
strong heating and presence of a remnant surface boundary may
support isolated storm development from late afternoon into the
evening. A threat for localized hail and strong to severe gusts
could accompany the strongest storms, but weak deep-layer shear and
uncertainty regarding storm coverage limit confidence in organized
severe potential at this time.  

...Southern NM into west TX...
Isolated strong storms could develop on Monday from parts of
southern NM into west TX, in advance of the mid/upper trough over
the Southwest. At this time, it appears that the stronger forcing
associated with the upper trough will remain displaced from the
richer moisture across parts of central/southwest TX through most of
the period. However, a faster trough ejection and/or more
substantial moisture return could result in an isolated severe
threat during the late afternoon and evening. 

...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast...
Modest enhancement to midlevel flow may continue across parts of the
Gulf Coast and Southeast, to the east of the persistent mid/upper
low/trough over east TX. Depending on the evolution of D1/D2
convection and any MCV development, a low-probability severe threat
could evolve over some part of this region, but confidence is much
too low to include probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 05/23/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS03/20260523T1927.txt