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ACUS01 KWNS 241242
SWODY1
SPC AC 241241
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
KANSAS INTO MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into
Minnesota and across portions of the Southeast today into tonight,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.
...Central Great Plains into MN...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest will move east into the Great
Lakes with zonal flow extending east from the northern Rockies into
the north-central states. The 12 UTC raob at Norman, OK sampled
only a modestly moist airmass (10.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing
ratio) with surface stations farther north in the central Plains
observing lower surface dewpoints than in OK. The moisture quality
and weak forcing regime will probably limit overall storm
coverage/intensity. However, isolated to widely scattered storms
are forecast near a weak surface trough later this afternoon and
evening. Vertical wind shear will support organized storms
including the possibility for a few supercells, mainly from NE into
MN. Large hail appears to be the primary hazard but severe gusts
are also possible. Farther south into KS where deep-layer shear is
forecast to be weaker, steep lapse rates will yield potential for
isolated severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled
downdrafts.
...Southeast...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows upper troughing extending
from the Upper Midwest southward into the northwest Gulf Coast.
Downstream of this eastward-migrating upper feature, an MCV over
southern AL will move northeast into GA later today and serve as the
primary impetus for severe-weather potential. The WSR-88D VAD in
Mobile, AL (KMOB) this morning sampled a belt of stronger 3-6 km
flow (30-40 kt) associated with the disturbance. Seasonably rich
low-level moisture and heating ahead of the ongoing convective
band/cloud shield will result in moderate buoyancy by midday. This
buoyancy and forcing for ascent will promote scattered thunderstorms
developing in the form of linear clusters. The stronger
water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of localized 50-65 mph gusts
and isolated wind damage through the early evening before this
activity subsides.
..Smith/Weinman.. 05/24/2026
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260524T1242.txt
599
ACUS01 KWNS 240557
SWODY1
SPC AC 240555
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains
and Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather.
...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is undergoing gradual amplification across the
northern mid-latitude Pacific. It appears that this will continue
through this period, with a fairly significant mid-level trough and
associated cyclone approaching the British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest coast by late tonight. Downstream, mid-level heights will
tend to rise across the northern Rockies and much of the Missouri
Valley through Upper Midwest, with troughing farther east generally
receding into the eastern Canadian provinces and adjacent portions
of the Northeast.
In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, a notable mid-level
high is forecast to be maintained and remain centered to the
west-southwest of Bermuda. Upstream, it appears that weak upper
troughing will linger across eastern Texas through the western Gulf
Basin, with perhaps an associated mid-level cyclonic circulation
centered across the upper Texas coastal plain, as the leading edge
of broad weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern
Pacific progresses through the Southwest.
As the stronger mid-latitude westerlies become increasingly confined
to areas near and north of the western and central Canadian/U.S.
border area, and the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content will generally remain confined to
the Gulf Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However,
modest low-level moisture return appears probable along and east of
weak lee surface troughing across the central Great Plains.
...Central Great Plains...
Substantive spread remains evident within latest model output,
including convection allowing guidance, concerning developments
which will influence convective potential this afternoon into
tonight. The risk for severe weather, in general, still seems
likely to be limited by weak forcing for ascent, seasonably modest
low-level moisture return, and modest to weak late afternoon into
early evening deep-layer mean wind fields.
However, due to veering of wind fields with height beneath modest
west to northwesterly mid/upper flow, vertical shear along and east
of the lee surface trough may become at least marginally sufficient
for organized convection, including supercells. And any
thunderstorm development persisting into mid/late evening may be
augmented by a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet
(including 30-40 kt around 850 mb).
In the presence of steep lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles
probably will become supportive of storms capable of producing large
hail during peak late afternoon instability into early evening,
particularly where it appears shear may be strongest across parts of
the middle Missouri Valley vicinity. Otherwise, widely scattered to
scattered storms may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind
gusts into mid to late evening, before instability wanes and
convection weakens.
...Southeast...
Severe weather potential across the Gulf Coast states into Southeast
today remains uncertain, with little clear signal evident in latest
model output. However, a notable cluster of storms, which has
weakened since becoming better organized offshore of the Louisiana
coast earlier this evening, has generated a meso-beta scale
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity center. It appears that
this may migrate inland across the western Florida Panhandle
vicinity near or shortly after daybreak, before continuing
northeastward during the day. As it does, based on potential
instability present in latest objective analysis, it could become a
focus for slowly intensifying and organizing thunderstorm
development which could eventually pose increasing potential to
produce damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/24/2026
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260524T0557.txt
097
ACUS01 KWNS 240049
SWODY1
SPC AC 240048
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving clusters of thunderstorms will probably be
accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts while spreading
from the Texas Panhandle vicinity through western North Texas this
evening into the overnight hours.
...01z Update...
...Southern Great Plains...
Considerable thunderstorm development is generally slowly spreading
eastward after initiating along the dryline, roughly from near
Clovis, NM into the Midland vicinity. However, at least somewhat
more prominent convective development continues to evolve farther to
the north, after initiating off the higher terrain to the east of
Raton and portions of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This is
appearing to be aided by stronger, albeit still modest,
northwesterly shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies,
within otherwise quite weak westerly ambient deep-layer mean flow
around or less than 10 kt, which prevails across much of the
southern Great Plains.
CAPE is somewhat modest as well, generally on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg across the high plains, but the boundary-layer has become
deeply mixed, with surface temperature-dew point spreads around or
in excess of 30F. In the presence of the more favorable shear, the
northern cluster has already generated a notable southeastward
surging cold pool accompanied by strong to locally severe wind
gusts. It appears that this will continue southeastward across much
of the southern Texas Panhandle during the next few hours. More
uncertainty exists later as it begins to interact with the
convection spreading off the dryline, but at least some convection
allowing guidance suggests that an outflow boundary intersection
could become a focus for continuing thunderstorm development with
strong to severe gusts into portions of western North Texas late
this evening or overnight.
...Southeastern Louisiana coast...
Low severe wind probabilities are being maintained tonight, as an
outflow boundary remains a focus for thunderstorm development mostly
offshore into the vicinity of southeastern coastal areas. Aided by
inflow of high moisture content air supportive of moderately large
CAPE, ongoing activity could still organize and intensify in the
presence of modest shear and southwesterly ambient deep-layer mean
flow up to around 20 kt.
..Kerr.. 05/24/2026
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260524T0049.txt
286
ACUS01 KWNS 231929
SWODY1
SPC AC 231928
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible through evening, mainly across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more
isolated severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast,
Ohio, and the central High Plains.
...20z Update...
The only changes to the 20z Day 1 Outlook are to remove
probabilities across parts of TX/LA/MS in the wake of an
northeastward-advancing MCS. Otherwise, forecast reasoning remains
similar to the previous outlook, detailed below. For more detailed
information on short term severe potential along the TX Coast and
the central High Plains, reference MCDs 838 and 839.
..Leitman.. 05/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026/
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided
by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across
the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more
extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern
Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a
modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also
occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable.
...West Texas/Southern High Plains...
Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern
aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into
the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob;
8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in
moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with
southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from
near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the
Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during
the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.
...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today.
Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered
showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support
some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm
clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially
yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this
threat wanes by early evening.
...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a
north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt
500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support
a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon
through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats
with these storms.
...Ohio...
A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon
within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end
tornado threat may exist.
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260523T1929.txt
285
ACUS01 KWNS 231636
SWODY1
SPC AC 231634
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more isolated
severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and
the central High Plains.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided
by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across
the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more
extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern
Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a
modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also
occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable.
...West Texas/Southern High Plains...
Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern
aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into
the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob;
8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in
moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with
southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from
near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the
Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during
the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.
...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today.
Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered
showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support
some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm
clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially
yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this
threat wanes by early evening.
...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a
north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt
500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support
a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon
through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats
with these storms.
...Ohio...
A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon
within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end
tornado threat may exist.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/23/2026
$$
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260523T1636.txt
