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728 
ACUS01 KWNS 011626
SWODY1
SPC AC 011625

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms yielding a risk for large hail and
localized severe gusts may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.

...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening.  Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks.  A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK.  Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period. 

...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening. 
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL.  Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon.  Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb.  A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.

..Smith/Wendt.. 03/01/2026

$$


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260301T1626.txt

 140 ACUS01 KWNS 011232 SWODY1 SPC AC 011230 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional large hail and damaging winds may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of south Florida and Oklahoma. ...South Florida... Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak/low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the northeast Gulf. This feature will track east-southeastward today over the FL Peninsula. Modest ascent associated with the shortwave trough should aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across parts of south FL in the vicinity of a decaying front, and along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may develop across this region by peak afternoon heating, with seasonably cool mid-level temperatures present (around -12 to -13C at 500 mb). While low-level winds are expected to remain weak, some enhancement to the west-northwesterly mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave trough should provide marginal deep-layer shear to foster modest thunderstorm organization. Consensus of recent high-resolution guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may form by 18-22Z south of the front and along various sea breezes while posing some threat for severe hail and occasional damaging winds. Have therefore included a Marginal Risk for parts of south FL with this update. ...Oklahoma... With large-scale upper troughing persisting over the eastern CONUS today, a weak shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the central High Plains this morning towards OK by early evening. A surface cold front is progged to decelerate and eventually stall along the I-40 corridor in OK, with modest boundary layer moisture present to its south. A narrow corridor of around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should develop by late afternoon/early evening along/near the front, aided by daytime heating and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage later today across OK, mainly owing to only weak large-scale ascent attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave trough and somewhat modest low-level moisture. Even so, the presence of elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels and related strong deep-layer shear suggest some potential for large hail and locally damaging winds if any robust updrafts can form and be sustained near the front late this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A focused Marginal Risk has been introduced this update where the best chance for isolated/sustained convection is apparent. ...Northern California... Large-scale ascent will overspread northern CA and vicinity ahead of an upper low that will approach the CA Coast by this evening. Gradually cooling mid-level temperatures and filtered diurnal heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass should support the development of weak instability across this region through the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms should develop, with the more robust updrafts possibly capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. This activity is expected to remain below severe levels owing to the weak instability forecast. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/01/2026 $$ File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260301T1232.txt
 660 ACUS01 KWNS 010537 SWODY1 SPC AC 010536 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California region this afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... South Florida: Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as broad upper troughing holds across the eastern CONUS with ridging expected over the Great Basin. Cool midlevel temperatures will overspread the FL Peninsula such that modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to sufficient instability for deep convection. Weak height rises and easterly component to low-level flow are not particularly favorable for severe thunderstorms, though a few robust updrafts could generate gusty winds or small hail across the southeastern FL Peninsula. Southern/Central Plains: Sharp cold front will settle south across OK/TX Panhandle during the day as the center of the surface anticyclone shifts into the Great Lakes. Modest boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of this wind shift across the TX South Plains into southwestern OK which will result in convective temperatures being breached by 22z as temperatures rise into the lower 80s. PW values are not that moist across the southern Plains, but weak low-level warm advection is expected atop the cold boundary layer north of the front. Elevated convection should develop across this region but weak buoyancy does not appear adequate for severe hail with the strongest updrafts. Northern California region: Modest midlevel height falls will spread across northern CA ahead of a notable upper low that will approach the coast by 02/00z. Left-exit region of 500mb jet is expected to aid ascent across northern CA, and more than adequate instability should materialize for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings exhibit around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. The most robust updrafts could generate small hail, but this activity is expected to remain below severe levels. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/01/2026 $$ File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260301T0537.txt
 001 ACUS01 KWNS 010042 SWODY1 SPC AC 010041 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Weak surface front is gradually advancing south across the southern FL Peninsula early this evening. Scattered convection continues near the south FL Atlantic coast, as deep westerly flow has shunted better low-level convergence into this portion of the peninsula. 00z sounding from MFL exhibited substantial instability, but latest radar/lightning trends suggest updrafts have weakened considerably. Primary threat for thunderstorms appears to have shifted offshore, especially as boundary layer continues to cool over the next few hours. 00z sounding from OUN exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with a deep boundary layer and only modest PW. Scattered weak convection is mostly concentrated over the Ozark region, and this activity only has isolated lightning noted with it. Given the weak 850mb flow it appears the risk for thunderstorms will continue to wane this evening. Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a short-wave trough approaching northern CA. This feature will deamplify as it ejects into the northern Great Basin later this evening. Lightning may accompany the stronger updrafts given the large-scale support. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2026 $$ File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260301T0042.txt
 563 ACUS01 KWNS 281947 SWODY1 SPC AC 281945 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Valid 282000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast in North Florida were made base on current observations. Mid-level ascent is entering the northeastern Gulf per visible/water-vapor satellite. This should continue to promote potential for additional thunderstorms within the central and southern Florida Peninsula. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026/ ...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula... Late morning surface analysis places a cold front near the I-4 corridor across the central portion of the Peninsula, with upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints south of the boundary. A mid-level vorticity maximum over MS/AL this morning is forecast to continue east-southeastward through the base of a larger-scale eastern US trough and eventually reach the Gulf Stream east of GA and southwestward to the southern 1/3 of the Peninsula by early Sunday morning. As this impulse progresses towards the region, the aforementioned front will slowly move south. This boundary, a residual outflow boundary, and an east-coast sea breeze will help focus thunderstorm development and a potential severe risk this afternoon. Ample heating of the moist boundary layer beneath a weak cap, which will continue to erode by early to mid afternoon, will result in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level flow will likely remain veered and relatively weak, but 30+ kt shear in the 700-300 mb layer will support some updraft organization. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the 18-20z period with a some of the stronger storms potentially being capable of 55-65 mph gusts and 1 to 1.75 inch diameter hail. Short-term CAM guidance suggests the most concentrated corridor for severe may extend from the north side of Lake Okeechobee, where an agitated cumulus field is developing along the diffuse outflow boundary, southward into Broward/Palm Beach counties. Convection is forecast to eventually move east into the Atlantic this evening with the severe risk diminishing. ...Oklahoma... Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity, although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong deep-layer shear. ...Northern California... A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon. While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area, the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak instability. $$ File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS01/20260228T1947.txt


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