474 
FXUS64 KOUN 081135
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
535 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Areas of fog with the potential for locally dense fog are
  expected this morning, especially across north central into
  central Oklahoma.

- Patchy frost is likely across north central into central
  Oklahoma this morning.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures return early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

A ~1024 mb surface high remains the primary influence on the 
weather across Oklahoma and north Texas once again this morning. 
With the weak surface pressure gradient, light and variable winds 
are creating ideal conditions for radiational cooling. This is 
leading to large temperature variations over short distances with 
temperatures in the 30s and 40s deg F. Patchy frost is likely 
across north central, central, and east central Oklahoma, where 
the lowest temperatures are forecast (mid 30s deg F). A Frost 
Advisory remains in effect for this area.

The light and variable winds, combined with a nearly saturated 
boundary layer, may also lead to the development of fog this 
morning. The most likely area to see fog is central, north 
central, and east central Oklahoma (where relative humidity is the
highest/closest to saturation). Any fog should dissipate by 
around mid morning. 

For this afternoon, the coverage of high clouds will be less than
yesterday and more confined across southern Oklahoma and north 
Texas with overall more solar insolation/sunshine. This will 
result in a warmer afternoon with high temperatures ranging from 
the upper 60s to the low 70s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

With light winds, patchy fog is possible once again Sunday night 
into Monday morning. Monday afternoon will be slightly warmer 
weather as southerly winds increase across Oklahoma and north 
Texas. The warmer weather will especially be noticeable Monday 
night into Tuesday morning, with low temperatures in the upper 40s
and 50s deg F as southerly winds advect higher dew 
points/moisture northward.

An upper-level low will eventually lift into the Southern Plains 
late Monday into Tuesday. Moisture is limited, so the chance for 
rain is ~10% or lower across western north Texas into southern 
Oklahoma. Otherwise, the warming trend continues Tuesday afternoon
with highs in the 70s to near 80 deg F. 

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The synoptic-scale pattern will change across the continental 
United States as a longwave trough develops across the eastern 
half of the country. This pattern will allow a cold front to 
advance southward as the trough amplifies to the east. Currently, 
the cold front is most likely to move through on Wednesday. 
However, the cold air may lag behind the initial wind shift with 
the coolest air arriving for Thursday and Friday. Rain chances 
also look to be near zero/limited with the front with the more 
appreciable synoptic-scale forcing remaining to the northeast.

How cold will the air mass be behind the front? The Southern 
Plains will be to the southwest of the strongest cold air 
advection, which means the chance of a significant cool-down (for 
November) is very low. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance 
indicates a ~20 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th 
percentiles, with the cooler end of ensemble guidance only 
lowering high temperatures into the 50s deg F (which is slightly 
below normal for mid-November). Currently, The most likely 
scenario is highs in the low 60s (northeast) to the low 70s deg F 
(southwest). 

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Patchy/areas of fog remain possible across northern and central 
Oklahoma through ~14-15 UTC this morning. While likely limited in 
time/space, IFR to LIFR vis may occur at KPNC and KSWO during 
this time. Additional chances for fog/lowered vis are also 
apparent towards the end of the period (early Monday morning). 

Otherwise, a light-variable surface wind and mostly clear
skies/passing high clouds will be common during the valid period.

Safe travels!

Ungar 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  46  71  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         69  45  71  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  69  48  73  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           71  43  73  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     69  43  71  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         72  47  74  54 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-026-030>032.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20261108T1135.txt



385 
FXUS64 KOUN 080835
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
235 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Areas of fog with the potential for locally dense fog are
  expected this morning, especially across north central into
  central Oklahoma.

- Patchy frost is likely across north central into central
  Oklahoma this morning.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures return early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

A ~1024 mb surface high remains the primary influence on the 
weather across Oklahoma and north Texas once again this morning. 
With the weak surface pressure gradient, light and variable winds 
are creating ideal conditions for radiational cooling. This is 
leading to large temperature variations over short distances with 
temperatures in the 30s and 40s deg F. Patchy frost is likely 
across north central, central, and east central Oklahoma, where 
the lowest temperatures are forecast (mid 30s deg F). A Frost 
Advisory remains in effect for this area.

The light and variable winds, combined with a nearly saturated 
boundary layer, may also lead to the development of fog this 
morning. The most likely area to see fog is central, north 
central, and east central Oklahoma (where relative humidity is the
highest/closest to saturation). Any fog should dissipate by 
around mid morning. 

For this afternoon, the coverage of high clouds will be less than
yesterday and more confined across southern Oklahoma and north 
Texas with overall more solar insolation/sunshine. This will 
result in a warmer afternoon with high temperatures ranging from 
the upper 60s to the low 70s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

With light winds, patchy fog is possible once again Sunday night 
into Monday morning. Monday afternoon will be slightly warmer 
weather as southerly winds increase across Oklahoma and north 
Texas. The warmer weather will especially be noticeable Monday 
night into Tuesday morning, with low temperatures in the upper 40s
and 50s deg F as southerly winds advect higher dew 
points/moisture northward.

An upper-level low will eventually lift into the Southern Plains 
late Monday into Tuesday. Moisture is limited, so the chance for 
rain is ~10% or lower across western north Texas into southern 
Oklahoma. Otherwise, the warming trend continues Tuesday afternoon
with highs in the 70s to near 80 deg F. 

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The synoptic-scale pattern will change across the continental 
United States as a longwave trough develops across the eastern 
half of the country. This pattern will allow a cold front to 
advance southward as the trough amplifies to the east. Currently, 
the cold front is most likely to move through on Wednesday. 
However, the cold air may lag behind the initial wind shift with 
the coolest air arriving for Thursday and Friday. Rain chances 
also look to be near zero/limited with the front with the more 
appreciable synoptic-scale forcing remaining to the northeast.

How cold will the air mass be behind the front? The Southern 
Plains will be to the southwest of the strongest cold air 
advection, which means the chance of a significant cool-down (for 
November) is very low. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance 
indicates a ~20 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th 
percentiles, with the cooler end of ensemble guidance only 
lowering high temperatures into the 50s deg F (which is slightly 
below normal for mid-November). Currently, The most likely 
scenario is highs in the low 60s (northeast) to the low 70s deg F 
(southwest). 

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The RAP and HRRR models forecast patchy fog in northern Oklahoma
(mainly west of KPNC), but overall the models signals are not too
strong for fog. But skies are clear across northern Oklahoma, 
winds are light to calm and humidity is above 95 percent across
portions of the area, so there does appear to be at least some
potential for fog. Have maintained some reduced visibilities
across north central, central and west central Oklahoma in the 
TAFs but the highest potential for IFR visibilities will be in
north central Oklahoma.

Otherwise, mid and high level cloudiness will persist Sunday
morning across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  46  71  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         69  45  71  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  69  48  73  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           71  43  73  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     69  43  71  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         72  47  74  54 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-026-030>032.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...14


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20261108T0835.txt



235 
FXUS64 KOUN 080446
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1046 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Areas of fog with locally dense fog will redevelop tonight
  across north central and central Oklahoma.

- The first frost of the year is likely in parts of central
  Oklahoma tonight.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures return early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Surface high pressure sits across the area today. Despite that, a 
trough moving eastward through northern Mexico has led to a 
widespread area of rain and cloud cover in southern and central 
Texas. Those clouds continue to stream over our area and will 
preclude us from getting too warm this afternoon. Highs will remain 
in the 60s in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, and a 
little cooler in areas that received widespread fog this morning. 
Most or all of the rain will remain south of our area and fizzle out 
as it approaches western north Texas. Still, there is about a 20-40% 
chance of light rain getting into Knox, Baylor, and Archer Counties 
before dissipating this evening.

Model guidance is insistent that the high cloud cover will recede to 
far southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Clearing skies and 
calming winds will let temperatures plummet across north central and 
west central Oklahoma to perhaps the coldest levels of the fall so 
far. A Frost Advisory is in effect for a belt from Hughes to Kay 
Counties and westward to Kingfisher/Garfield Grant Counties. That 
frost will coincide with another night that looks quite conducive to 
fog development across north central and central Oklahoma. Further 
to the south and west, cool temperatures and fog are also possible, 
but light southerly winds reduce confidence in denser fog/frost.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The trough across the Rio Grande Valley will slowly move eastward 
tomorrow, though it will be weakening with time. Any rain chances 
will remain well south of our area through the short-term period, 
but the trough will be just enough to turn surface winds southerly 
across the Plains. Because of that, temperatures will warm back into 
the 60s on Sunday and even back up into the 70s on Sunday. 

Nighttimes continue to look rather clear and calm, so fog is 
expected to redevelop on at least Sunday night and potentially 
Monday night as well. Dense fog is possible, though exact 
locations where visibility reductions are likeliest remain 
uncertain. Low temperatures will be a little warmer the next few 
nights, so no more frost is in the forecast.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures will continue on Tuesday and 
Wednesday with highs generally in the 70s and lows generally in 
the upper 40s and 50s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance
indicates little spread during these two days, which indicates 
high confidence that the relatively warm weather will continue.

By Thursday into Friday, ensemble spread increases markedly as a 
cold front will likely move across the Southern Plains as a 
longwave trough develops across the eastern half of the United 
States. This pattern will allow a cold front to drive southward as
the trough amplifies to the east. 

With the Southern Plains southwest of the strongest cold air 
advection, there is uncertainty regarding how much cold air will 
advance into Oklahoma and north Texas. It will be highly dependent
on the track of the attendant surface high behind the cold front.
Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance indicates a ~20 to 30 deg F
spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles with a 20 to 40% 
chance of high temperatures below 60 deg F by next Friday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The RAP and HRRR models forecast patchy fog in northern Oklahoma
(mainly west of KPNC), but overall the models signals are not too
strong for fog. But skies are clear across northern Oklahoma, 
winds are light to calm and humidity is above 95 percent across
portions of the area, so there does appear to be at least some
potential for fog. Have maintained some reduced visibilities
across north central, central and west central Oklahoma in the 
TAFs but the highest potential for IFR visibilities will be in
north central Oklahoma.

Otherwise, mid and high level cloudiness will persist Sunday
morning across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  39  68  46  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  44  69  47  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           42  70  45  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     37  69  43  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         45  71  45  73 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-026-030>032.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...14


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20261108T0446.txt



195 
FXUS64 KOUN 072303
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
503 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 459 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Areas of fog with locally dense fog will redevelop tonight
  across north central and central Oklahoma.

- The first frost of the year is likely in parts of central
  Oklahoma tonight.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures return early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Surface high pressure sits across the area today. Despite that, a 
trough moving eastward through northern Mexico has led to a 
widespread area of rain and cloud cover in southern and central 
Texas. Those clouds continue to stream over our area and will 
preclude us from getting too warm this afternoon. Highs will remain 
in the 60s in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, and a 
little cooler in areas that received widespread fog this morning. 
Most or all of the rain will remain south of our area and fizzle out 
as it approaches western north Texas. Still, there is about a 20-40% 
chance of light rain getting into Knox, Baylor, and Archer Counties 
before dissipating this evening.

Model guidance is insistent that the high cloud cover will recede to 
far southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Clearing skies and 
calming winds will let temperatures plummet across north central and 
west central Oklahoma to perhaps the coldest levels of the fall so 
far. A Frost Advisory is in effect for a belt from Hughes to Kay 
Counties and westward to Kingfisher/Garfield Grant Counties. That 
frost will coincide with another night that looks quite conducive to 
fog development across north central and central Oklahoma. Further 
to the south and west, cool temperatures and fog are also possible, 
but light southerly winds reduce confidence in denser fog/frost.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The trough across the Rio Grande Valley will slowly move eastward 
tomorrow, though it will be weakening with time. Any rain chances 
will remain well south of our area through the short-term period, 
but the trough will be just enough to turn surface winds southerly 
across the Plains. Because of that, temperatures will warm back into 
the 60s on Sunday and even back up into the 70s on Sunday. 

Nighttimes continue to look rather clear and calm, so fog is 
expected to redevelop on at least Sunday night and potentially 
Monday night as well. Dense fog is possible, though exact 
locations where visibility reductions are likeliest remain 
uncertain. Low temperatures will be a little warmer the next few 
nights, so no more frost is in the forecast.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures will continue on Tuesday and 
Wednesday with highs generally in the 70s and lows generally in 
the upper 40s and 50s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance
indicates little spread during these two days, which indicates 
high confidence that the relatively warm weather will continue.

By Thursday into Friday, ensemble spread increases markedly as a 
cold front will likely move across the Southern Plains as a 
longwave trough develops across the eastern half of the United 
States. This pattern will allow a cold front to drive southward as
the trough amplifies to the east. 

With the Southern Plains southwest of the strongest cold air 
advection, there is uncertainty regarding how much cold air will 
advance into Oklahoma and north Texas. It will be highly dependent
on the track of the attendant surface high behind the cold front.
Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance indicates a ~20 to 30 deg F
spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles with a 20 to 40% 
chance of high temperatures below 60 deg F by next Friday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The main aviation impact will be the potential for morning fog,
especially in north central Oklahoma. Outside of that, light and
variable winds will prevail.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  39  68  46  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  44  69  47  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           42  70  45  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     37  69  43  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         45  71  45  73 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-026-030>032.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...14


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20261107T2303.txt



913 
FXUS64 KOUN 071931
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
131 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Areas of fog with locally dense fog will redevelop tonight
  across north central and central Oklahoma.

- The first frost of the year is likely in parts of central
  Oklahoma tonight.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures return early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Surface high pressure sits across the area today. Despite that, a 
trough moving eastward through northern Mexico has led to a 
widespread area of rain and cloud cover in southern and central 
Texas. Those clouds continue to stream over our area and will 
preclude us from getting too warm this afternoon. Highs will remain 
in the 60s in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, and a 
little cooler in areas that received widespread fog this morning. 
Most or all of the rain will remain south of our area and fizzle out 
as it approaches western north Texas. Still, there is about a 20-40% 
chance of light rain getting into Knox, Baylor, and Archer Counties 
before dissipating this evening.

Model guidance is insistent that the high cloud cover will recede to 
far southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Clearing skies and 
calming winds will let temperatures plummet across north central and 
west central Oklahoma to perhaps the coldest levels of the fall so 
far. A Frost Advisory is in effect for a belt from Hughes to Kay 
Counties and westward to Kingfisher/Garfield Grant Counties. That 
frost will coincide with another night that looks quite conducive to 
fog development across north central and central Oklahoma. Further 
to the south and west, cool temperatures and fog are also possible, 
but light southerly winds reduce confidence in denser fog/frost.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The trough across the Rio Grande Valley will slowly move eastward 
tomorrow, though it will be weakening with time. Any rain chances 
will remain well south of our area through the short-term period, 
but the trough will be just enough to turn surface winds southerly 
across the Plains. Because of that, temperatures will warm back into 
the 60s on Sunday and even back up into the 70s on Sunday. 

Nighttimes continue to look rather clear and calm, so fog is 
expected to redevelop on at least Sunday night and potentially 
Monday night as well. Dense fog is possible, though exact 
locations where visibility reductions are likeliest remain 
uncertain. Low temperatures will be a little warmer the next few 
nights, so no more frost is in the forecast.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures will continue on Tuesday and 
Wednesday with highs generally in the 70s and lows generally in 
the upper 40s and 50s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance
indicates little spread during these two days, which indicates 
high confidence that the relatively warm weather will continue.

By Thursday into Friday, ensemble spread increases markedly as a 
cold front will likely move across the Southern Plains as a 
longwave trough develops across the eastern half of the United 
States. This pattern will allow a cold front to drive southward as
the trough amplifies to the east. 

With the Southern Plains southwest of the strongest cold air 
advection, there is uncertainty regarding how much cold air will 
advance into Oklahoma and north Texas. It will be highly dependent
on the track of the attendant surface high behind the cold front.
Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance indicates a ~20 to 30 deg F
spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles with a 20 to 40% 
chance of high temperatures below 60 deg F by next Friday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

This mornings fog is burning off rapidly across parts of west-
central through southwest Oklahoma with KCSM as the only impacted 
terminal. Will keep a TEMPO group in KCSM for another hour as 
expecting it to return to a VFR category by 19Z. All of our 
remaining terminals should remain in a VFR category at least 
through 08Z. Expecting a return of fog after 08Z mainly across 
northcentral OK and could see it go dense after 12Z impacting 
terminals KSWO & KPNC reducing them to an IFR to LIFR category. 
Will have TEMPOS for a potential for patchy fog in 4 other 
terminals by 12Z which could reduce those terminals to an MVFR 
category in BR. High surface pressure will continue building in 
keeping surface winds light & variable through the forecast 
period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  39  68  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         62  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  63  44  69  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           65  42  70  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     59  37  69  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         67  45  71  45 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-026-030>032.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20261107T1931.txt



385 
FXUS64 KOUN 071721
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1121 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1059 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Areas of fog with locally dense fog will continue through mid-
  morning.

- Fog is expected to redevelop tonight, especially across north
  central into central Oklahoma.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures return early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A ~1026 mb surface high centered across Missouri is the primary 
influence on the weather across Oklahoma and north Texas this 
morning. Light and variable winds, combined with a saturated 
boundary layer, are resulting in areas of fog this morning, with 
locally dense fog primarily across west-central into northwest 
Oklahoma.

In addition to the fog, the light and variable winds are 
resulting in a cold morning with temperatures in the 30s and 40s 
deg F. With the light winds, local terrain effects are resulting 
in a large change of temperatures in short distances. Patchy frost
is likely across northern Oklahoma, where temperatures have 
fallen into the mid 30s deg F. These observations are taken at 1.5
meters (5 feet). As a result, ground-level temperatures are 
likely low enough to result in localized frost. 

The fog should dissipate by mid-morning. However, abundant and 
dense high cirrus clouds (~20,000 to 25,000 ft) will persist 
throughout the day. Therefore, it'll be another cool afternoon 
(especially compared to recent weeks) with high temperatures 
ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Areas of fog are expected to develop once again tonight with the 
highest chance across north central into central Oklahoma. Low 
temperatures here are generally expected to fall below the minimum
dew point this afternoon (also known as the crossover 
temperature). When the low temperature falls below the crossover 
temperature with light and variable winds, it indicates the 
potential for radiation fog from saturation and then condensation 
near the boundary layer. 

The coverage of high clouds should shift southward on Sunday with
a bit more solar insolation/sunshine expected. As a result, a 
warmer afternoon is expected with high temperatures ranging from 
the mid 60s to the low 70s deg F. 

Monday will be similar to Sunday with slightly warmer weather as 
southerly winds increase across Oklahoma and north Texas. The 
warmer weather will especially be noticeable Monday night into 
Tuesday morning, with much higher low temperatures expected in the
upper 40s and 50s deg F.

An upper-level low once across the southwest U.S. will eventually
lift into the Southern Plains late Monday into Tuesday. Moisture 
is somewhat limited, so the chance for rain is very low at this 
time.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures will continue on Tuesday and 
Wednesday with highs generally in the 70s and lows generally in 
the upper 40s and 50s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance
indicates little spread during these two days, which indicates 
high confidence that the relatively warm weather will continue.

By Thursday into Friday, ensemble spread increases markedly as a 
cold front will likely move across the Southern Plains as a 
longwave trough develops across the eastern half of the United 
States. This pattern will allow a cold front to drive southward as
the trough amplifies to the east. 

With the Southern Plains southwest of the strongest cold air 
advection, there is uncertainty regarding how much cold air will 
advance into Oklahoma and north Texas. It will be highly dependent
on the track of the attendant surface high behind the cold front.
Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance indicates a ~20 to 30 deg F
spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles with a 20 to 40% 
chance of high temperatures below 60 deg F by next Friday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

This mornings fog is burning off rapidly across parts of west-
central through southwest Oklahoma with KCSM as the only impacted 
terminal. Will keep a TEMPO group in KCSM for another hour as 
expecting it to return to a VFR category by 19Z. All of our 
remaining terminals should remain in a VFR category at least 
through 08Z. Expecting a return of fog after 08Z mainly across 
northcentral OK and could see it go dense after 12Z impacting 
terminals KSWO & KPNC reducing them to an IFR to LIFR category. 
Will have TEMPOS for a potential for patchy fog in 4 other 
terminals by 12Z which could reduce those terminals to an MVFR 
category in BR. High surface pressure will continue building in 
keeping surface winds light & variable through the forecast 
period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  39  68  46 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         62  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  63  44  69  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           65  42  70  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     59  37  69  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         67  45  71  45 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>018-021>024-027-033>038.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for TXZ083-085.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68


File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KOUN/FXUS64/20261107T1721.txt