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457
ACUS11 KWNS 240546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240546
TXZ000-OKZ000-240715-
Mesoscale Discussion 0845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Areas affected...Parts of western North TX and far southwestern OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 240546Z - 240715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for sporadic strong-severe gusts will continue
for another hour or so.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms with a recent history of
producing measured gusts of 60-75 mph is tracking east-southeastward
across western North TX and far southwestern OK. While large-scale
forcing for ascent is weak and the low-level jet is not particularly
strong, recent radar data from LBB and FDR indicate a trailing
stratiform region and signs of an established (albeit modest)
rear-inflow jet. Related cold pool dynamics should continue to
support new updrafts along the leading gust front as it tracks
east-southeastward through a corridor of weakly unstable air, and
sporadic strong-severe gusts will remain possible before this
cluster weakens over the next couple hours.
..Weinman/Smith.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33180064 33470031 33840010 34510005 34649971 34589936
34329889 33859858 33469851 32889866 32579917 32589967
32630033 32910069 33180064
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260524T0546.txt
947
ACUS11 KWNS 240201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240201
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-240300-
Mesoscale Discussion 0844
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...the Panhandle into the South Plains of Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...
Valid 240201Z - 240300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe wind gust potential is expected to become more
sporadic with time through 04z (11 PM CDT).
DISCUSSION...As of 0145 UTC, mosaic radar data sampled a bowing line
of storms moving through the north-central and central TX Panhandle
with an east to southeast system motion of 35 to 40 kt. The
convective system has reached a mature state, featuring a trailing
stratiform region and associated 35-40 kt rear-inflow jet, per KAMA
VWP. The system cold pool has recently begun to surge ahead of the
parent updrafts, at least in the Amarillo vicinity, with echo-top
trends decreasing with time, suggesting that the parent updrafts are
being to assume an increasing upshear tilt. A recent wind gust to 75
mph was observed just north of Amarillo, but otherwise, gusts have
generally been in the 45-55 mph range.
Latest surface observations and objective analysis indicate the MCS
moving into an increasingly moist boundary layer, which will offset
gradual cooling to some extent, with MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg.
However, convective inhibition will continue to increase, which
coupled with a growing cold pool-shear imbalance, is expected to
result in severe wind gusts becoming more sporadic with time through
04z as the MCS moves into the eastern TX Panhandle.
In the TX South Plains, storms have merged into clusters and line
segments west and northwest of Lubbock. Based on radar trends, there
is some potential for the southern portion of the TX Panhandle MCS
to merge with this separate regime in the southern TX Panhandle or
the northern part of the South Plains in the next hour or two.
Locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible as that process
occurs, along with isolated occurrences of severe hail.
..Mead.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33680306 35620303 35620214 36520212 36510056 33350046
33350308 33680306
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260524T0201.txt
593
ACUS11 KWNS 232316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232316
TXZ000-OKZ000-240045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0843
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...
Valid 232316Z - 240045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
continues.
SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind gusts will increase through
02z (9 PM CDT) from the northwest into central Texas Panhandle.
Isolated occurrences of large hail are also possible.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, individual thunderstorms have
consolidated in to a line, which extends from south-central Cimarron
County in the western OK Panhandle southwest through western parts
of Dallam and Hartley Counties in the northwest Tx Panhandle as of
2310 UTC. Recent KAMA base velocity data indicate multiple channels
of stronger winds embedded within the line, suggestive of a
gradually organizing cold pool. The downstream air mass across the
TX Panhandle is modestly moist with steep low/mid-level lapse rates
largely contributing to MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg, per objective
analysis.
The current KAMA VWP is sampling southeasterly winds within the
lowest 2-3-km AGL, which are forecast to strengthen in the 01-03z
time frame, effectively enhancing storm-relative inflow into the
evolving convective system. That coupled with around 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear, and the steep lapse rates may support the
southeastward acceleration of the ongoing thunderstorm line into the
central Panhandle by 02z (9 PM CDT) or earlier, with an attendant
risk for severe wind gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated occurrences of
large hail.
..Mead.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
LAT...LON 35770303 36310298 36520279 36600249 36390162 35790113
35320128 35050156 34990207 35420289 35770303
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260523T2316.txt
050
ACUS11 KWNS 232039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232039
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-232245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeastern new Mexico into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 232039Z - 232245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to
pose a risk for hail and some damaging winds into this evening. A WW
is possible.
DISCUSSION...Across portions of the southern High Plains, afternoon
satellite and radar imagery showed high-based convection
strengthening across the southern Raton mesa in northeastern NM and
southeastern CO. South of a broad upper trough and modestly enhanced
westerly flow aloft, weak upslope flow has resulted in modest
destabilization of the air mass so far this afternoon. Continued
warming will support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE amid steep low and
mid-level lapse rates (18z AMA sounding). 20-30 kt of deep-layer
flow on area VADs is supportive of a mixed mode of multicellular and
transient supercell structures.
Ongoing storms over NM/CO should continue east/southeastward with
gradual intensification as they encounter more buoyancy. Additional,
more isolated, storm development is possible along a subtle sfc
confluence axis across the central TX Panhandle. CAM guidance and
observational trends shows these storms intensifying, with an
associated increase in the severe risk through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the early evening.
Isolated large hail is possible initially, especially with any
longer-lived supercells. Some potential for severe wind gusts is
also possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. This threat
could increase further as a gradual clustering is expected during
the evening hours across southern portions of the TX Panhandle where
buoyancy is greater. With severe potential expected to increase, a
WW is possible over the next couple of hours.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33660275 34120314 34790350 35490357 36000356 36380333
36880256 36700107 35890050 35330019 34250025 33620060
33360094 33300216 33660275
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260523T2039.txt
177
ACUS11 KWNS 232004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232003
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-232130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0841
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...Central/northern Mississippi...southeast Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...
Valid 232003Z - 232130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
continues.
SUMMARY...Though becoming more isolated with time, damaging winds
will remain a concern into parts of northern Mississippi this
afternoon. Additional watches are not expected.
DISCUSSION...Trends in MRMS CAPPI data have shown a gradual downward
trend in the intensity of the convective line moving north through
Mississippi. This trend is expected to continue as greater effective
shear values lift northward with time. That said, upper 60s F
dewpoints in parts of northern Mississippi are supporting 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE and low-level lapse rates are at least modestly steep. Wind
damage will remain possible with the convective line as it lifts
north, but this potential should become more isolated with time.
..Wendt.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33798860 33268858 32888895 32538937 32529008 32839094
33029181 33409177 34189110 34168973 33798860
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260523T2004.txt
125
ACUS11 KWNS 232002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232002
TXZ000-NMZ000-232200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...portions of West Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 232002Z - 232200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon.
One or more clusters with a risk for hail and damaging gusts is
expected. The need for a WW is unclear.
DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed
convection increasing in coverage from the Davis Mountains into
parts of southwestern and West TX. Strong heating and weak ascent
from a subtle subtropical shortwave trough should remove lingering
inhibition over the next couple of hours. Ongoing high-based
convection and its associated outflow should continue and may
strengthen as additional storms develop over the southern High
Plains and Edwards Plateau within the destabilizing air mass.
Convective coverage should continue to increase this afternoon with
a few stronger multicells and clusters becoming established. Steep
mid-level lapse rates above 8.5 C/km (12z DRT sounding) will support
strong multi cell updrafts with isolated hail potential. Surface
winds and flow aloft are quite light suggesting storm organization
will be episodic. Deep-layer shear is generally weak (EBWD <25 kt),
but the degree of buoyancy (forecast MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) and
steep lapse rates could favor a risk for damaging winds, especially
if substantial clustering of storms can occur.
Given the expected increase in convective coverage, some severe risk
is evident this afternoon and continuing into the evening hours. CAM
guidance shows initial scattered storms gradually coalescing into a
few stronger clusters and spreading eastward this evening. While
some severe risk is possible, the lack of broader storm organization
suggests a watch is possible but not overly likely in the short
term. Convective trends will be monitored should the need for a
watch become apparent.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30730294 31340278 32220313 32590303 33040207 32950152
32600058 31630026 31030044 30330082 29970121 29900237
29950305 30730294
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260523T2002.txt
733
ACUS11 KWNS 231833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231833
TXZ000-232030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...Middle Texas Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231833Z - 232030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A compact MCS will be capable of severe winds along the
middle Texas Coast. The threat will remain spatially confined to the
immediate coast and a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A compact MCS developed in the vicinity of Corpus
Christi earlier this afternoon. This feature has had a history of
severe gusts (53-59 kt measured in Corpus Christi). Given the radar
signature on KCRP velocity data and a favorable thermodynamic
environment ahead of the MCS, severe gusts along the immediate coast
will remain possible. This activity will likely interact with
convection near Houston. At that time, severe potential should
diminish.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...
LAT...LON 28049669 28499699 28879667 29239595 29309532 29189504
28839521 28049669
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260523T1833.txt
258
ACUS11 KWNS 231824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231824
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-232130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado...western/central
nebraska and northwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231824Z - 232130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across
the central High Plains. A few stronger storms could emerge with a
risk for isolated hail and damaging winds. A watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 1820 UTC, visible imagery showed initial ACCAS
and boundary layer cumulus over parts of NE/CO was beginning to
deepen with diurnal warming. This heating, amid modest (40s F)
surface dewpoints is support weak destabilization, which should
continue through the afternoon. Aided by weak ascent from a broad
upper trough over the High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop and spread eastward into this evening.
While initially buoyancy (SBCAPE ~ 500 J/kg) and vertical shear will
be on the weaker side, 20-30 kt of effective shear could support a
few organized multi cell clusters. Steep lapse rates in the low and
mid-level should support a risk for some hail and damaging gusts
with the stronger storms. CAM solutions show some clustering as
convection gradually spreads eastward with a slight increase in
deep-layer shear late this afternoon into the early evening. While
an isolated severe risk is possible, the weaker buoyancy and
initially more limited vertical shear should keep the threat
isolated. Thus a WW is unlikely at this time.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40060001 39020108 38970243 39800279 41170259 42310156
42380061 42289989 41729941 40869964 40060001
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260523T1824.txt
901
ACUS11 KWNS 231734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231734
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231930-
Mesoscale Discussion 0837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...Georgia into central South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231734Z - 231930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible as scattered convection
develops this afternoon. Potential for a more organized severe
threat continues to appear low and a watch is not currently
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Despite weak forcing, scattered thunderstorms are
likely within a a very moist (low/mid 70s F dewpoints) and weakly
capped airmass. Mid-level lapse rates are relatively poor (6 C/km
per 12Z FFC sounding), but around 1.75 in. PWAT values and pockets
of steeper low-level lapse rates will promote potential for isolated
water-loaded downbursts and associated wind damage. Storm
organization is not expected to be substantial and any greater
potential for wind damage would be tied to localized clustering of
storm cells.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 31358461 32788508 33668482 33858436 33838318 34018154
34088081 33748069 32488167 31308255 30908322 30928354
31358461
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260523T1734.txt
035
ACUS11 KWNS 231705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231705
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-231900-
Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana into central Mississippi
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...
Valid 231705Z - 231900Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for wind damage will continue into central
Mississippi this afternoon. Brief tornadoes also may occur,
particularly close the the MCV circulation.
DISCUSSION...Filtered surface heating continues ahead of an
MCV-driven convective line. The strongest surface heating has
occurred in central Mississippi where temperatures are in the low
80s F. KPOE VAD shows around 40 kt of flow within the lowest 3 km
after the MCV passed. This should promote at least some threat for
wind damage as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen ahead of
the activity. The southern extent of the threat is the most
uncertain given the influence of convection along the central Gulf
Coast. While overall low-level shear remains weak, KPOE VAD did show
an increase to around 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH just ahead of the MCV.
Brief tornadoes remain possible this afternoon.
..Wendt.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31498955 31319002 31219080 31079161 31179188 31639207
32039263 32399305 32529298 33269158 33379037 33098946
32638910 32198922 31498955
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260523T1705.txt
989
ACUS11 KWNS 231421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231420
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-231615-
Mesoscale Discussion 0835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...Sabine Valley into central Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231420Z - 231615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds are possible with a band of
convection moving into Louisiana. A brief tornado may also occur
with cellular convection ahead of the line. A watch is not currently
expected, though observational trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms in association with an MCV
continues eastward through the Sabine Valley region this morning.
Occasional strengthening of convective cores has been noted on MRMS
CAPPI imagery. As surface heating occurs ahead of this activity,
isolated wind damage will be possible with the strongest portions of
the line. In central Louisiana, recent radar data from KPOE shows a
couple of supercell structures with at least weak low-level
rotation. Regional VAD profiles do not show very strong low level
shear, but there is likely some localized enhancement in close
proximity to the MCV. A brief tornado is possible with cellular
convection ahead of the MCV/convective line and perhaps within the
line as well. A watch is not currently anticipated, but convective
trends will be monitored into the afternoon.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 29399341 29599363 30499377 31199454 31649435 32129363
31599154 31009150 29849264 29599307 29399341
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
File: /home/ldm/var/data/BY_SOURCE/KWNS/ACUS11/20260523T1421.txt
